Thursday, August 28, 2014

Putin Goosesteps Into Europe, What Will Obama Do?

Obama doesn't understand politics. Nor does he understand the great power realpolitick that Putin is playing. And, yes, Obama is being played. During the reelection campaign, Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney understood the world far better than the clueless Obama. Each of them accurately predicted the exact series of events we are now witnessing, but Obama said no, never, the Cold War is over!

Putin has been playing Obama from the first days of the Obama Administration. From day one, Putin has been sizing up this odious US president attempting to discern whether his naivete was just a front or an actual feature of Obama's character. Russian actions in Ukraine with a now apparent full-on invasion, reveal the conclusion Putin has reached.

Obama cannot and will not be effective in countering Putin or preventing Putin from doing virtually anything Putin wants. Obama can't, because Obama is clueless. The only chance that Obama has is to wake up soon and smell the coffee as it actually is - deep roasted. My guess is Obama won't find the b**** to shift his perspective to see the world as it actually is rather than as he believes it to be.

If Obama remains ineffective as president and in his foreign policy, we can expect not more of the same by our enemies and antagonists around the world, we can expect them to grow more aggressive, more demanding and more threatening.

It was obvious from the start that Putin would eventually invade Ukraine. Those who say it wasn't obvious, that there was no indication that Putin would order Russian troops into Ukraine are clueless about how the world actually works.

Now that Russian troops are openly fighting in Ukraine, we may be in the endgame; we have certainly reached a new stage.

So what happens next?

Specific actions of next steps are difficult to estimate. We can expect Putin to continue to push, and unless he is stopped by force somewhere along the way, he will keep on pushing. His invasion of Ukraine shows how well sanctions and negotiations have worked.

Force does not need to mean hostile action or violence against Russian forces. NATO or US forces can be stationed in Ukraine far ahead of advancing Russian troops. If they are not withdrawn, Putin will stop his advance when he believes that the American President has suddenly come out to play and found the courage to fight if necessary.

What most people fail to understand - and what Reagan knew intimately well - is that fighting is almost never necessary if you have the resolve to fight when pushed. If you will fight when you are pushed, most people - and most nations - will never push that far.

I'm guessing that this won't happen, so let's play out this worst case scenario. If Obama does not find the resolve to fight for Ukraine or a few lumps of rock in the western Pacific, America will fall.

I know that's a bold and outrageous statement, and it needs to be expanded. Having the resolve to fight does not mean we will. It means being prepared and willing to do so and making sure that those who would challenge us are well aware of this fact. That should level the psychological playing field - all wars and pre-war actions are just a poker game - and force Putin and the Chinese and other nation-state actors to reassess their position and back off on their claims and or actions. Such a resolve should be sufficient.

If we fail to develop the will to fight, not only Putin and the Chinese, but other nation-state actors and non-governmental organizations, will be inspired and encouraged to redraw the world in their favor. This redrawing can only logically end when America is completely redrawn off the map - erased. They will keep redrawing the world and redrawing the world until America is completely drawn off. This won't happen a little at a time, at a certain point when world powers have decided it's time to act, they will take a big step and redraw the world map leaving the United States out - probably as a pile of ashes.

If Obama does not use force to reign in Putin now, the situation, over time, will only grow worse. China may decide to claim Taiwan militarily and position troops and facilities on disputed regions of the East China Sea and South China sea. Even current allies may waver and decide to switch sides. We can't allow that to happen, but I'm predicting it will, in time.

If Obama does not stop Putin with force while he still has time to do so, the world will eventually devolve into World War Three.

The Bible says that in the Last Days there will be "wars and rumors of wars," "nation shall rise against nation and kingdom against kingdom." Perhaps those days are here.

Author Perry Jones is an Urban Philosopher, Military Strategist and author of the book, "Investing in the Future: A Policy for the Next President."

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